How to beat the market?

Antara perkara yang sukar dalam TRADING, ialah percaya kepada 'TRADING EDGE', malah kita juga harus PERCAYA bahawa WINNER berlaku secara RAWAK.

Pakar Trading Psychology, Mark Douglas, setiap TRADING EDGE STRATEGY, dalam setiap market, WINNER dan LOSER berlaku secara RAWAK.

Dalam erti kata lain, secara asasnya KITA tidak akan tahu sama ada our NEXT TRADE akan berkahir dengan MENANG ata KALAH sehingga PRICE sama ada HIT TP atau SL.

Namun kebanyakan TRADER, apabila MASUK TRADE meletakkan keyakinan yang TINGGI untuk MENANG dalam SETIAP TRADE, ini menyebabkan mereka sanggup mengambil RISIKO yang besar dalam SESUATU SETUP.Ini kerana jika MEREKA tidak percaya bahawa SETUP itu akan MENANG, masakan mereka sanggup pertaruhkan RISIKO yang besar.

Mungkin cara TERBAIK untuk CONTROL MINDA dalam TRADING ialah dengan TIDAK MELETAKKAN HARAPAN MENANG, yang terpenting IALAH SETIAP TRADE YANG DIAMBIL hanya befokuskan kepada EDGE.

Mark Dauglas memberi beberapa TIPS untuk mengatasi MASALAH ini, ia amat SUKAR DILAKUKAN, terutama apabila BERDEPAN dengan LOSING STREAKS..

1. Secara asasnya, jika kila FLIP COIN. Kita yakin bahawa 70% dari hasil FLIP ialah KEPALA dan bakinya ialah BUNGA. Namun kita patut beri peluang kepada JUMLAH FLIP yang kita LAKUKAN. Adakah satu FLIP, kita sudah mengaku.. its not RIGHT.Kita sepatutnya membuat KESIMPULAN selepas 100 FLIP atau LEBIH. Sample SIZE perlu memadai sebelum membuat KESIMPULAN bahawa hasil FLIP ialah 70% KEPALA. Ini juga tidak BERMAKNA, 70% KEPALA itu berlaku secara BERJUJUK. Konsep ini amat PENTING untuk kita PERCAYA dengan TRADING EDGE kita.

2. Jika anda FLIP duit syiling 100 KALI, mungkin 20 FLIP yang pertama ialah BUNGA sebelum berlaku 60 yang berikutnya KEPALA, kemudian 10 FLIP berikutnya bunga secara berjujuk dalam selebihnya 10 FLIP mendapat KEPALA secara berjujuk. Hasil 100 FLIP ini menghasilkan 70% KEPALA dan 30% BUNGA. Sekarang jika kita MASUKKAN konsep ini dalam TRADING, adakah mental kita kuat UNTUK STICK dengan TRADING EDGE selepas LOSS 20 trade secara berturut-turut? Atau kuatkan mental kita untuk menghadapi 10 LOSS trade secara berturut-turut tanpa mengubah TRADING STRATEGI. Walaupun kita tahu bahawa dari 100 TRADE, 70 adalah WINNER, tapi MENTAL kita MUSTAHIL untuk dapat MENGURUS dengan 10 atau 5 KERUGIAN berturut-turut, terutama apabila kita mengambil BIG RISK dalam setiap TRADE tersebut. 

3. Dua perkara dapat dilakukan bagi meningkatkan TRADING EDGE ialah dengan mempunyai sifat SABAR dan hanya mengambil TRADE yang mempunyai HIGH PROBABILITY sahaja. Satu lagi yang perlu dilakukan ialah dengan FOKUS pada TRADING EDGE dan bukannya LOSE TRADE.

4. Perkara utama yang perlu di ELAKKAN ialah OVER TRADING, Fokus dan Disiplin terhadap MONEY MANAGEMENT dan TRADING EDGE. At end of 100 TRADE, you will make consistance income because of proper MONEY MANAGEMENT and TRADING EDGE. 

The Art Of Marking Support and Resistance - Revisit

The Art of Marking Support and Resistance Levels

Why is marking support and resistance levels so important?

Do you struggle with the process of marking your support and resistance levels? The process can be one that confuses lots of traders but in this article I will try to break down the technique I use to mark my key support and resistance levels, to hopefully get you to start marking these very important levels as accurately and consistently as possible.

 

So why is it so important to be able to mark our support and resistance levels properly? Well, I believe the foundation for any solid trading strategy is the ability to know where to find the best high probability trades and this means knowing exactly where the best levels are to go hunting.

We know that the markets have a tendency of repeating themselves and this can be seen on any chart. The reason for this is due to human participation and human nature causing price to react and repeat itself over and over again. If price reacts very strongly at a certain level on a chart, the chances are very high that it will react there again in the future. This repetitive nature of the markets allows us to mark key levels on the charts in the knowledge that price will repeats itself and may produce a valid trade setup.

Learning how to select the correct levels to trade from increases the odds of finding solid trades.

This article will explain how I use price action and the candlesticks that get printed on the charts to make marking these key hunting levels a very simple process but to begin with we need to go over what supply and demand is and how it effects movements in price.

What is supply and demand?

 

 

Let’s start by defining what supply and demand actually is.

 

Supply is the measure of how much of a particular commodity is available at any one time. As the supply of a currency increases, the currency becomes less valuable. Conversely, as the supply of a currency decreases, the currency becomes more valuable.

 

Alternatively, demand is the measure of how much of a particular commodity people want at any one time. As the demand for a currency increases, the currency becomes more valuable. Conversely, as the demand for a currency decreases, the currency becomes less valuable.

Therefore, price reversals and support and resistance levels form when we have imbalances in the supply and demand. If we look at any Forex pair on any particular time frame, price will be contained within two boundaries a support level situated below the current price and a resistance level situated above the current price.

 

The resistance level acts as the ceiling for price and indicates where supply is higher than demand and this is where we’d expect price to be pushed back down lower.

The support level acts as the floor for the market and indicates where demand is higher than supply and these are the levels where price bounces off and moves higher from.

Using the information on the charts to mark key levels.

Now we have a better understanding of supply and demand and how it can effect price movements I can start to explain how we can mark our key support and resistance levels. As a price action trader I rely solely on the use of candlestick charts and by using these candlesticks we are able to mark the important key levels relatively easily.

 

 

 

If we start by looking at the anatomy of the candlesticks that get printed on the charts, we can learn a lot about how price has reacted in the past. We can see where price has been rejected from and also where price has closed for each period of a specific time frame. Knowing where price has been rejected from and where it actually closes are both very important pieces of data and I use both to help me place my key support and resistance levels.

Candlestick wicks

It’s very easy to recognise where price gets rejected from and this is done via the candlestick wicks. The wicks of candles tell us at what point price has reversed from and the tips of the wicks show exactly where price has been reversed from. We can also examine the size and length of the wick as it can indicate the strength of the rejection (larger wicks = larger rejection). So the wicks of the candles provide us with some very key data to see where price reverses from.

Candlestick close

The second piece of information a candlestick provides that is worth considering, is where each candlestick closes. Looking at where each candlestick closes helps us to see where price struggles to close beyond and this data can help us to find price flip zones. Flip zones or flip levels are where levels switch from support to resistance and vice versa.

 

An example of a flip zone would be a support level which prevents price from closing below it but once price does break lower and closes below it, the level flips from a support level to being a resistance level, rejecting and preventing price returning back above the level. These flip zones are important areas to look out for and can help us determine key areas in the market.

 

Above is a chart to show you what a flip zone looks like. If we start on the left hand side of the chart you can see price has tried but been unable to close above the level (labelled 1). This level is currently acting as a resistance level.

 

When price does finally breach the resistance level and closes above it (labelled 2) we can see price retest the level 6 times (labelled 3) but price is rejected and cannot close below. This is now acting as a support level and so the level has flipped.

 

Finally, we get a large bearish candle (labelled 4) close below the flip zone and we then can see price retest the level twice but it is unable to close back above. This level is now acting as a resistance level.

 

Price pushes lower but tries again to break back above the resistance level and we can see a pin bar (labelled 5) form with its wick indicating a strong rejection of the level.

 

This level is clearly a strong key level and it is very easy to see how price obeys the level and so we would deem this level to be a price flip zone or flip level.

 

Once we can identify these flip zones which tie in as many candlestick wicks and candle closes as possible we will start to mark and find consistent key levels to trade from.

 

Take a look at another chart shown below which will hopefully show you how I have marked both my support and resistance levels. I try to get each level to link in with as many of the candlestick wicks as possible making sure to consider the candle closes and reading how price reacts once it breaches each level.

 

 

Looking at both the resistance and support levels marked you can see how the levels contain price and only once price finally breaks out and closes beyond the level does price manage to make a strong move away from the levels.

 

Key levels like these which have been tested numerous times and have rejected price, are the ones we want to follow. We really need to see a level tested atleast twices and caused strong rejections to consider the level a strong level to trade from.

 

So to recap, the marking and finding of the key support and resistance levels requires a combination of both the candlestick wicks and candlestick closes, both play important roles in determining our support and resistance levels.

 

If we can learn to determine the key levels which once broken turn and reverse their polarity we will start to be able to quickly find the important areas to look for trades to form. 

 

By asking ourselves, the simple question “at what point if price does manage to close beyond a certain level does the chance that price will continue further away increase, rather than be contained and held by a level?” By asking this question to yourself when scanning the charts you will begin to see the key levels much more quickly and they will start to ping out from the charts.

Which time frame should we use?

The next important consideration we need to make is what time frame we should use to mark our key support and resistance levels from.

 

To make things as simple as possible we need to have charts which are clean and uncomplicated and to achieve this we need to have the minimum number of levels on the charts at one time. By using only one single time frame to mark the two key levels from, we will produce the clean charts we desire.

 

Which time frame should we use? Well to put the odds in our favour we really want to make sure we are trading from the very best levels, we need to make sure we are choosing the strongest and most powerful levels, where the percentage of traders who are watching a certain level is much higher and so where strong price reversals are more likely to occur. Comparing all the time frames available to us, I believe the daily time frame is the best option.

 

Why? Well, by using the daily time frame we ensure we are marking levels which have proven themselves to be extremely important and have resulted in very strong reversals forming. Because we are using levels which have in the past produced strong rejections /reversals we know the chances are lots more traders across the world will be looking in the same areas and similar reactions could occur in the future.

 

When we place trades we ultimately need other traders to push price along in the right direction and so the more traders we have watching a certain level increases the chances that traders will agree with our analysis, increasing the chances of price moving in the desired direction.

 

Alternatively, if we marked our support and resistance levels off a lower time frame like the 1hr chart, the levels we find may not even be visible on the daily charts and so for this reason we could be trading from weaker areas where the chances are less traders will be watching and so less inclined to take a trade from and get price moving strongly.

How do we mark these levels on the daily charts?

So far I have shown you how we look at the candlesticks wicks and closes to mark our support and resistance levels but we have to remember we will always have to allow for a degree of give and take, we can never see levels as pin point accurate levels but more zones or areas where price may react and reverse. It’s all about practice and getting your eye in.

 

Sometimes, not all the candles will tie in perfectly but it’s about getting a happy medium and having levels that link in as many candle closes and wicks as possible. There will always be a few anomalies when marking our key levels but this is just something we have to accept.

 

Remember to only consider marking levels which have caused strong price reversals on the daily charts, there will be some minor levels visible but these are not where we want to take trades from.

 

I will now take you through the exact process of marking support and resistance levels from a daily chart.

Step 1. Pull up a daily chart of any Forex pair you like. Making sure to have the chart zoomed in correctly, I find the best view to use is by zooming the chart out completely and then hitting the zoom in button twice. This gives a nice overview of what has happened previously with price and it’s easy to see the key areas or levels where price has reacted strongly. If you zoom in too much on the chart you may completely miss a really solid level.

 

The next thing to do is to take note of where price is currently trading and then scan the charts from right to left. The idea here is to look at what price has done in the past and to mark the nearest support level below current price and then the nearest resistance level above the current price.

 

 

Step 2. Marking the support level, this is the next strongest level below current price and we are looking to see where in the past that price has reacted strongly from, turning price around. Ignore minor levels which may have only caused pauses in price movement and look for the really strong areas which have caused big price reversals.

 

Once we have found an area that has caused price to reverse strongly from, we have to mark our support level. I personally use a red line and look to tie in as many candle closes and wicks as possible to get the most accurate level to work from. You can clearly see how the support level I have chosen has produced strong price movements in the past. Once this level is marked I move onto the resistance level.

 

The charts below show the placement of the support level, with two zoomed in charts to show you more clearly how price has reacted at this level.

 

 

Step 3. Marking the resistance level, this is the next strongest level above current price and again we are looking for a level which has caused price to react strongly from, just like the support level.

 

Usually, your first impressions when you look at a chart are correct and so look for the levels which really stand out immediately and clearly show strong price reversals. Looking at the chart below we can see that at point A price reversed strongly twice and then price has continued to react at point B and C, so this is the closest key level to where price is currently and a good spot to look for price action trades.

 

 

Step 4. Now we have our support and resistance levels marked, we can use these levels on the daily time frame and also on the lower time frames as areas to look for trades. We must never have more than two levels marked at one time, this is to reduce any confusion and to keep the charts as clean as possible.

Once price breaches one of the levels we must then reassess and mark the next relevant level. So if price breaks through a support level, this will now become the resistance level and the next important level below current price will be the support level.

 

 

The process of marking support and resistance levels is one which once mastered should only take a few seconds to place on any chart.

 

Practice, Practice, Practice is the golden rule here.

 

A key point to note, is that if there are no clear levels to mark from the chart, leave the chart alone and move onto another. If you cannot find any key levels easily, then the rest of the traders out there will be in the same boat. We want to only focus and trade from the clear and obvious levels in the market, always trying to trade away from these key levels and not back into them.

Get practicing!

I hope this article has given you some food for thought and will help get you on the right track to start marking your key support and resistance levels more consistently. Granted, it’s not rocket science but it does require a good eye and some practice on your part. Once you trust your levels you can begin to hunt for trades knowing that they are forming at solid levels which will increase your chances of trades moving in the desired direction.

 

The next step once you are able to mark your support and resistance levels properly is to learn how to use these key levels to start entering trades from, this will be discussed in the next article and I will go through how we can use these levels to hunt for trades on both the daily and intra-day time frames.

Sources: Click Here

45 WAYS TO AVOID LOSING MONEY TRADING FOREX by Jimmy Young, CTA

45 WAYS TO AVOID LOSING MONEY TRADING FOREX by Jimmy Young, CTA

Who is Jimmy Young?

Retired proven professional Bank FOREX trader with over 20 years of hands-on FOREX trading experience.

1) Knowledge Deficiency – Most new FOREX traders don’t take the time to learn what drives currency rates (primarily fundamentals).

2) Overtrading - Trading often with tight stops and tiny profit targets will only make the broker rich. The desire to “just” make a few hundred dollars a day by locking in tiny profits whenever possible is a losing strategy.

3) Over leveraged - Leverage is a two way street. The brokers want you to use high leverage because that means more spread income because your position size determines the amount of spread income; the bigger the position the more spread income the broker earns.

4) Relying on Others – Real traders play a lone hand; they make their own decisions and don’t rely on others to make their trading decisions for them; there is no halfway; either trade for yourself or have someone else trade for you.

5) Stop Losses – Putting tight stop losses with retail brokers is a recipe for disaster. When you put on a trade commit to a reasonable stop loss limit that allows your trade a fair chance to develop.

6) Demo Accounts – Broker demo accounts are a shill game of sorts; they’re not as time sensitive as real accounts and therefore give the impression that time sensitive trading systems, such as short-term moving average crossovers can be consistently profitably traded; once you start dealing with real money, reality is quick to set in.

7) Trading During Off Hours – Bank FX traders, option traders, and hedge funds have a huge advantage during off hours; they can push the currencies around when no volume is going through and the end game is new traders get fleeced trying to trade signals. There is only one signal during off hours – stay out.

8) Trading a Currency, Not a Pair – Being right about a currency is half a trade; success or failure depends upon being right about the second currency that makes up the pair.

9) No Trading Plan - 'Make money' is not a trading plan. A trading plan is a blueprint for trading success; it spells out what you see your edge as being; if you don’t have an edge, you don’t have a plan, and likely you’ll wind up a statistic (part of the 95% of new traders that lose and quit).

10) Trading Against Prevailing Trend – There is a huge difference between buying cheaply on the way down and buying cheaply. What was a low price quickly becomes a high price when you’re trading against the trend.

11) Exiting Trades Poorly – If you put on a trade and it’s not working make sure you exit properly; don’t compound the damage. If you’re in a winning trade, don’t talk yourself out of the position because you’re bored or want to relieve stress; stress is a natural part of trading; get used to it.

12) Trading Too Short-term – If your profit target is less than 20 points don’t do the trade; the spread you pay to enter the trade makes the odds way against you when you go for these tiny profits.

13) Picking Tops and Bottoms - Looking for bargains works well at the supermarket but not trading foreign exchange; try to trade in the direction the price is going and your results will improve.

14) Being Too Smart – The most successful traders I know are high school graduates. They keep it simple and don’t look beyond the obvious; their results are excellent.

15) Not Trading Around News Time – Most of the big moves occur around news time. The volume is high and the moves are real; there is no better time to trade fundamentally or technically than when news is released; this is when the real money adjusts their positions and as a result the price changes reflect serious currency flow (compared to quiet times when Bank traders rule the market with their customer order flow).

16) Ignore Technical Condition – Determining whether the market is over-extended long or over-extended short is a key determinant of near time price action. Spike moves often occur when the market is all one way.

17) Emotional Trading – When you don’t pre-plan your trades essentially it’s a thought and not an idea; thoughts are emotions and a very poor basis for doing trades. Do people generally say intelligent things when they are upset and emotional? I don’t think so.

18) Lack of Confidence – Confidence only comes from successful trading. If you lose money early in your trading career it’s very difficult to gain true confidence. The trick is don’t go off half-cocked. Learn the business before you trade.

19) Lack of Courage to Take a Loss – There is nothing macho or gutsy about riding a loss, just stupidity and cowardice. It takes guts to accept your loss and wait for tomorrow to try again. Getting married to a bad position ruins lots of traders. The thing to remember is the market does crazy things often, so don’t get married to any one trade. It’s just a trade. One good trade will not make you a trading success; rather it’s monthly and annual performance that defines a good trader.

20) Not Focusing on the Trade at Hand– There is no room for fantasizing in successful trading. Counting up and mentally spending profits you haven’t made yet is mental masturbation and does you no good. Same with worrying about a loss that hasn’t happened yet. Focus on your position and have a reasonable stop loss in place at the time you do the trade. Then be like an astronaut – sit back and enjoy the ride. No sense worrying because you have no real control. The market will do what it wants to do.

21) Interpreting FOREX News Incorrectly – Fact is the press only has a very superficial understanding of the news they are reporting and tend to focus on one element and miss the point. Learn to read the source documents and understand it for real.

22) Lucky or Good – Your account balance changes don’t tell you the whole story about your trading. Fact is if you are taking a lot of risk and making money you will eventually crash and burn. Look at the individual trade details. Focus on your big loses and losing streaks. Ask yourself this, "If I had a couple of consecutive losing streaks or a couple of consecutive big losses, how would my account balance look?" Generally, traders making money without big daily losses have the best chance of sustaining positive performance. The others are accidents waiting to happen.

23) Too Many Charity Trades – When you make money on a well thought out trade don’t give back half on a whim. Invest your profits from good trades on the next good trade.

24) Courage Under Fire – When a policeman breaks down the door to a drug dealer's apartment he is scared but he does it anyway. When a fireman climbs onto the roof of a burning building he is scared but does it anyway, and gets the job done. Same with trading. It’s ok to be scared but you have to pull the trigger. No trigger – no trades – no profits – no trader.

25) Quality Trading Time – I suggest 3 hours a day of quality, focused trading time. That’s about all your brain allows. When you are trading, be 100% focused. Half way is bullshit - it doesn’t work. Don’t even think that time spent in front of the computer watching the rates has any correlation to profitability - it doesn’t. Spend less time but when you're trading, be 100% focused on trading.

26) Rationalizing – Killer. Absolute Killer. Put your trade on and let it run. If it hits your reasonable pre-determined stop, you're out. Think of yourself as a prizefighter. You just got knocked out. Moving your stop is like getting up after being crushed with a knockout blow. It’s pointless. Things will only get worse. Don’t ignore the obvious. You're wrong – get out. Come back the next day and try again. A small loss will not hurt you - a catastrophic loss will.

27) Mixing Apples and Oranges – Have you ever done this? You see the EURUSD trading higher so you buy GBPUSD because it “hasn’t moved yet”. That’s a mistake. Most of the time the reason the GBPUSD hasn’t moved yet is because it's already overbought or some 4:30am UK news was bearish. Don’t mix apples and oranges. If EURUSD looks bid, buy EURUSD.

28) Avoiding the Hard Trades – Bank FX traders have an axiom "the harder the trade is to do the better the trade". This I learned from experience. When I needed to buy EURUSD and it was hard to get them, that’s when it’s necessary to pay up and get the business done. When it’s easy to get them, then sit back and wait for better levels. So if you are trying to get into a trade, or more importantly get out of a trade, don’t putz around for a few points - get your business done.

29) Too Much Detail – If your trading more than 2 indicators then you need to clean house. Having many indicators stifles trading and finds reasons not to trade. A setup and a trigger is all you need.

30) Giving Up Too Easy – Your first trade of the day may not be your best but certainly it’s no reason to quit. I have a preset daily trading limit and I use it. You can’t make money by making excuses. Getting trades wrong is natural and should be expected.

31) Jumping the Gun – Don’t be penny wise and dollar foolish. Wait for your trade signal to be clear. Put on your trade and give it a decent size stop loss so that you don’t get knocked out by random noise.

32) Afraid to Take a Loss - trading is not personal, it’s business. Don’t think that a poor trade is a reflection on you. It could be you're just ahead of your time or a commercial order hits the market and temporarily creates a small unexpected move. Again, place your stop beforehand and NEVER increase your pre-determined risk. If it’s going bad, it will probably get worse. I think that’s Newton's “body in motion tends to stay in motion…”

33) Over-Relying on Risk Reward – There is zero advantage in risk reward. If you put a 20 point stop and a 60 point profit your chances are probably 3-1 that you will lose. Actually with the spread its more like 4 to 1 (from entry point if it goes down 17 points you lose, or up 63 - you win; 17/63 is close to 4-1).

34) Trading for Wrong Reasons – Because the EURUSD is going up is not in itself a reason to buy. Buying EURUSD because it's not moving much is even worse. You’re paying the toll (spread) without even a hint that you will get a directional move. If you are bored, don’t trade; the reason you're bored is there is no trade to do in the first place.

35) Rumors – Rumors are rumors almost 100% of the time. Think about where in the motion you heard the rumor. If EURUSD is up 50 points in last 15 minutes and the rumor is dollar negative, well - then you missed it. Whenever you in motion with the trade, determine where you are entering.

36) Trading Short-term Moving Average Crossovers – This is the money sucker of the century. When the shorter term moving average cross the longer term moving average, it only means that the average price in the short run is equal to the average price in the longer run. For the life of me, I cannot understand why this is bullish or bearish. Easy to set up on software, complete with lights, bells and whistles, and good for the seller getting thousands for the software but in terms of creating profit - it’s a zero.

37) Stochastic – Another money sucker. Personally I think this indicator is used backwards. When it first signals an overdone condition, that’s when I think the big spike in the “overdone” currency pair occurs. To be overbought means strong and oversold means weak. Try buying on the first sign of overbought and selling on the first sign of oversold. You’ll be with the trend and likely have identified a move with plenty of juice left.

38) Wrong Broker – A lot of FOREX brokers are horrible. Get a good one. Read forums and chats in several different places to get an unbiased opinion.

39) Simulated Results – Watch out for “black box” systems. These are trading systems that don’t divulge how the trade signals are generated. Great majority of them are absolute garbage. They show you a track record of extraordinary results but think about it. If you could build a trading system with half a dozen filters using the benefit of hindsight, couldn’t you too come up with a great system. Of course going forward is an entirely different story. High-speed number crunching capabilities allows for building great hindsight trading systems, so BEWARE.

40) Inconsistency – Every business (FOREX trading included) requires a business plan (trading plan). Unless you have taken the time to write down a set of rules that you can and will follow, it’s likely your trading will remain unfocused and directionless. Make a plan, have rules, follow them. Set goals that are realistic and you will achieve them.

41) Master of None – Focus on one currency for technical trading. Each currency has a unique way of trading and unless you get intimate with it, you will never truly understand its underlying idiosyncrasies. Don’t spread yourself too thin – focus, master one currency at a time.

42) Thinking Long Term – Don’t do it. Stay in the moment. Especially if you’re a day trader. It doesn’t matter what happens next week or next month. If you are trading with 30 to 50 point stops, restrict your thought process to what’s happening right now. That is not to stay the long-term trend is not important. It is to say the long-term trend will not always help you when your trading a significantly shorter time frame.

43) Overconfidence – Trading is simple but not easy. Statistics show 95% failure rate of those attempting to become traders. If you're doing well, don’t take your success for granted. Always be on the lookout for ways to improve what you are already doing.

44) Getting Pumped Up – The trick is to maintain an even keel. When you are in a trade, you want to think exactly as you would if you didn’t have a trade on. To do this requires a relaxed disposition. This is not a football game. Don’t get psyched up. Relax and try to enjoy it.

45) Staying in the Game– I don’t recommend demo trading because traders learn bad habits when trading with play money. I also don’t think “letting it all hang out” right away is wise either. Start off doing trades and taking risk that is relatively small but still makes a difference to you if you win or lose. About a quarter to a third of what you expect to reach as your trading matures is reasonable.